chinook quota

[John Murray]

I was blown away by the 2013 quota announcement,a friggin drop of 90,800 kings all gear.Whats the deal?I've been trying to track the chinook projections on the west coast it looks good on the Columbia,Oregon coast is sounding promising.Yeah we had fewer around in 2012.It doesn't add up.

[paul]

They are saying that the record fall run predicted for the Columbia are going to be too small for us to retain.

[Salty]

Paul,
Are they thinking Jacks?

[paul]

No they aren't jacks. They are three year old fish just under our legal size.

[yak2you2]

Undersize fish, and missing fish have been chronic problems lately. All fish cycle, but what are the odds of them cycling down at the same time? Halibut is at an all time low in the central gulf. King salmon are crashing, and those that make it back are runts. Coho returns have been borderline runts too recently.They're not getting fed is my opinion. No, not talking about the herring dispute of S.E. That may or may not play a bit part, but it isn't pivotal. Salmon swim up and down the entire coast, and out into the deep ocean. I have a theory that it's the drag fleet causing the problems, but not for the reasons you think. Their by-catch sucks, but it's nothing new. They've been doing that for decades. What I'm concerned about is this. Polluck are the single largest biomass on the planet. They have to be the main food source for everything in the deep ocean. Little ones, big ones, they all feed something up and down the food chain. Well, how many years can you continue to suck millions and millions of metric tons out of the biomass, before it crashes? I know, I'm sure there's some college kid somewhere working for NOAA who is quick to disagree with me. If I'm wrong, then why is it mainly the predator fish that are affected? Plankton eaters like sockeye seem to be doing ok. No offense, but I don't think any degree could give anybody any better perspective of what's down there in the way of polluk than a simple guess. Does anybody really feel like this fishery is being managed for sustainability? What, like the Menhaden? The Atlantic Cod? The Sardines? The herring. Humans have a way of wiping things out, we should at least admit that fault, and try to build it into program.
All I know is, something is terribly wrong. The ocean is dying this time it seems like.

[Salty]

Norcalfishingnews/stories/salmon

At least we can read about somebody catching some.

[Salty]

http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divi ... recast.cfm#

FigureASalmon returns versus the mean rank of ecosystem indicators. Arrows show the forecasted returns of Chinook salmon in 2013 and 2014 (upper four panels) and coho salmon in 2013 (lower left panel). With a mean rank of the ecosystem indicators of 5.9 in 2011, the spring and fall Chinook salmon forecast for 2013 (top left two panels) is 200,000 and 440,000 adults returning to the Bonneville dam respectively. With an only slightly more favorable mean rank (5.5) of the ecosystems indicators in 2012, the forecasted adult returns of spring and fall Chinook salmon are expected to be slightly higher at 215,000 and 460,000 adult fish returning to the Bonneville dam in 2014 (upper right two panels). The smolt to adult survival of coho salmon to Oregon coastal streams is expected to be approximately 3% in 2013 (lower left panel).

Doesn't say anything about these fall fish being small. Where did you find that?

[paul]

I got it from Patty Skannis.

[John Murray]

Check out Fish Wrap acheives 2-26 13 for projections on the Columbia.While this river only makes up a part of our catch it is a big part of the AI.So something really is out somewhere.Not sure about the smaller fish returns,upriver brights are those larger August fish that migrate thru.

[John Murray]

Paul it looks like you got the straight scoop on the 3 year old under 28in. fish.There was a story on Raven radio that had Dave Bedfort commenting on the reasoning behind the cut.
I still have a hard time comprehending all these 3yr fish coming back to the Columbia.Has there ever been a big run of 3yr olds in our fishery before that showed up as 26-27 in. shakers?Yeah one catches a few small kings once in a while,mostly in the fall. But I've never seen numbers,with the exception of the inside banks which can have some.
Oh

[ata]

Hi All:

The quota is really disappointing, no doubt about it! We are still gathering information on the cause of the quota drop this year, and what it says about the productivity of the stocks in our fishery.

On the 3 year olds... this year's Columbia River bright return is apparently made up of a large number of 3 year old fish, which are typically less than 28". They are not small because of ocean conditions - they are just young. We land mostly 5 year old Chinook in Southeast. So, despite the recent near record breaking returns of Columbia River brights , and a record forecast this year, many of those fish are not expected to be landed in our fishery.

You will see optimistic fish reports for some of the Southern fisheries that catch this stock, but that's because they catch 3 and 4 year old fish. As is often the case, stock status in the north can be different than in the south. We have seen many years when the Lower 48 fleet was starving, yet Alaska had fish. Different ocean currents and the fleets harvesting fish from different age classes are a couple of things that account for that situation.

Another 'driver stock' affecting our quota is West Coast Vancouver Island, which is expecting a poor return. And a recent drop in Chinook productivity in Alaska probably also added a bit to the equation.

Looking at the biological data will only give you part of the story about Alaska's quota. The quota is based on the abundance of specific Chinook stocks. Abundance is forecast using a mathematical model. Each year's Chinook abundance forecast is represented by an index. For 2013, the index for Southeast Alaska is 1.2. There are quota numbers associated with each index. And, since the treaty was renegotiated in 2009, another 15% has been taken off that quota number each year. The 15% cut was based on politics - not biology - which is why you won't be able to find the biological justification to support such a big drop. That 15% deduction is also why ATA was able to get the fleet a mitigation program, to help back-fill a portion of the political cut. Obviously it does not cover the whole loss.

Without the 15% cut, our quota would have been 207,000 this year, which still points to lower abundance of the stocks we will catch. To make matters worse, the 2012 post-season abundance index came in lower than predicted. This has been happening the last few years and has the treaty technical committee looking more closely at the model, as well as the data that is added to the model. If the model is found to chronically over-predict abundance, managers might get more conservative in their management. This is another good reason to consider participating in our call in program. Real time information from the fishing grounds helps managers to avoid over-estimating the inseason catch, which can often get you more fishing time.

If I get any additional, or different, information I will report back.

Dale
ATA

[Salty]

Thanks Dale, Paul, and John. I learn stuff every time I visit this site. I heard Bedford this morning too.

So, I talked to another treaty source and got the information pretty much verified as Dale has reported.

I have been around so long that I know better than to trust fishery models and predictions. Doesn't mean I ignore them or good science. Just that I have an iota of an inkling how little we really know about what is happening in the marine ecosystem, particularly with far migrating species like salmon.

What I would like to see is the funding for some tracking of Chinook salmon stocks like I read this morning and posted here about the killer whales.

We might find a big black hole of salmon disappearing where the trawl fleet works off of Kodiak.

I do know one thing pretty much today. It is windy, rainy, and cold across most of SE and not many kings are being harvested.

[grinder]

I thought there were supposed to be king salmon added to our quota sine the troll fleet has reduced the mortality rate of the kings caught out of season. Anyone know if this is true or not?

[ata]

Hi All:

I thought there were supposed to be king salmon added to our quota sine the troll fleet has reduced the mortality rate of the kings caught out of season. Anyone know if this is true or not?

The short answer is, yes. I am attaching an article from ATA's Fall 2011 newsletter that gives a more lengthy description of the issue and problem. There isn't much to report in terms of an update. The Pacific Salmon Commission has been focused on other important aspects of the agreement the last couple of cycles and only Alaska's commissioner is interested in implementing total mortality. The other US Commissioner's have been unyielding when it comes to this issue. The Alaska delegation wants to find ways to break the gridlock, but it's tricky. All three of the US commissioners must agree in order to get a US position to take to Canada, which makes the situation quite challenging.

Since this issue is subject to international negotiation, this is about the extent of what I'll share online. However, if you have additional questions about this or other treaty issues, I'm happy to discuss them with you personally. Please call the office.

Dale
ATA

[Kelper]

Thanks Dale.

ATA renewal went in the mail today. Appreciate you taking the time to keep us all updated on here.